Forecasts see soft landing for state economy - Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal:

Forecasts see soft landing for state economy - Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal:: "Forecasts see soft landing for state economy
Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal - 6:24 AM PST Thursday

Two quarterly economic reports Thursday forecast an economic slowdown but no recession in California next year.

The slowdown in the housing and construction markets will continue, but should by offset by gains in other parts of the state economy, the UCLA Anderson Forecast and the University of the Pacific's report said.

'Without a secondary source of economic distress it's not enough to cause a recession,' the UCLA report concludes.

It adds that 'manufacturing is not poised to contribute much to job loss' and 'real interest rates are very low and there is no evident credit crunch, not on the horizon.'

UCLA projects an 0.5 percent growth in nonfarm payroll jobs next year and 1 percent in 2008, compared with 1.5 percent in 2006. Personal income and taxable sales are expected to grow less than 2 percent annually, factoring for inflation.

University of the Pacific, located in Stockton, said California's gross state product is on course to expand 6.2 percent this year, but slow to a 4.8 percent annual average through 2009.
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