Tuesday, April 26, 2005

University of the Pacific’s Eberhardt School of Business release on the economy

University of the Pacific’s Eberhardt School of Business release on the economy


Highlights of the California Forecast

Payroll employment forecast to grow at 2.0% per year over 2005-2007

High growth Sectors: Professional and Business Services, Information and Construction.

Gross State Product to grow at nearly 5.5% 2005-2007

Unemployment rising slowly from 5.7% to 6.0% (2005-2007)

Housing starts peak in 2005 and fall slightly in 2006-2007, as mortgage rates rise.

Highlights of Vallejo/Fairfield/Napa, CA SMSA

Total personal income is expected to increase above the state average growth rate as the employment outlook is strong.

After experiencing marginal growth in the past few years, total employment is expected to increase an average of 3.5% through the next three years.

Professional and business services are predicted to have the greatest growth of 9% while creating over 3,000 additional jobs by 2007. Population is expected to continue to rise as Bay Area workers continue to migrate east in search of affordable housing. The influx will cause employment in construction to grow an average of 4%. Information, leisure and hospitality are forecasted to grow at an average of 4%, due in part to the growth in the popularity of wineries.

Although manufacturing employment is down on average throughout the state, manufacturing in this metro is predicted to continue to grow as firms like biotech giant Genentech and biodiesel producer Bio-Energy Systems grow.

However, state and local government will remain the largest employment sector with 33,000 jobs by 2007.

Unemployment is predicted to decline slightly as total employment outstrips the growth in population.

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